Last month’s heatwave saw temperatures reach 40c down south, whilst here in Uist we barely made 11 degrees. Am Pàipear asked STV ’s weather reporter for his views on what climate change will mean for our weather.

In my early career working in meteorology, we talked about ‘global warming’ but over the years the narrative has changed to ‘climate change’ to take in more of the complexity of a warming climate.
Climate change is such a big talking point now because so many areas of the world are experiencing wild and volatile extremes.
Yes, I get the argument that extremes have always been around – of course they have, but it’s the regularity of them and how widespread they’ve become in recent years. All-time records are falling all over the world at either end of the extreme spectrum.
We can’t get away from the images of massive shelves of ice breaking off Antarctica, fires raging around the world, floods ravaging South Sudan, while next door in Ethiopia, mass migrations are taking place due to droughts. And of course, the extreme heat sweeping Europe.
But wait… What about the record-breaking snow we experienced in Central Scotland in 2018 from the Beast from the East? The extreme cold we had in 2010, or the record-breaking cold they’ve experienced in recent winters in the United Sates? And the record cold weather they’re currently experiencing in Australia? Well, this is part of the climate change package of extremes, and that’s why we no longer talk simply about ‘global warming’.
But what about you in the Western Isles?
Often this year, when I’ve been talking about the warm and dry weather, I can almost sense the excitement from viewers, especially the young ones who are currently enjoying their school holidays. However, I can also feel the resentment as I sweep my hand across the Western Isles with the announcement of more trailing weather fronts and showery rain.
I say resentment, but I’m sure there’s a good few of you who don’t really fancy partaking in the extreme heat. But still, it would be good to lose the fronts for a while.
There’s been a trend for the Azores high pressure cell to ridge further north more often and this is what brings the more prolonged drier spells along with warmer weather. Although for Uist, it still predominantly means a westerly airflow, which means being on the edge of the good weather, along with our friends in Shetland.
But what are our climate change markers here? Well unfortunately for my research, I only have three weather stations to look at for the Western Isles. There’s Stornoway, Quidnish in Harris and South Uist Range.
The weather station in Stornoway is the main one I use for climate trends, as it’s one of the longest serving in Scotland and is still recording.
What really stands out from the records is that the biggest climate change marker for the Western Isles is during the winter and spring months. For example, Stornoway has recorded its warmest November night, December night, February night and April night on record, all within the last 20 years. When it comes to warmest days, Stornoway recorded its warmest April day, its warmest July day and mildest November day, all in 2003.
An average winter afternoon in the 70s would have been around 7C in North Uist and Benbecula, but now that’s near 8C. This doesn’t sound a lot, but that change in average masks the number of days above 10C, which are now a lot more frequent.
Our summer average afternoon high has increased from 16C to 17C in the same period and means days with 20C plus are now more common.
The increase in winter and spring temperatures will be seen as a benefit to farmers as this means fewer damaging frosts. In the 60s and 70s, we would normally have recorded about 30 days with air frosts each year in inland parts of North Uist and eastern South Uist, but now that’s around 15-20 days.
I’ve talked a lot about temperature, but let’s look at rainfall. In the 60s and 70s we would get around 1100mm of rain per year but that is now 1300mm. That’s quite a big jump when you think how that equates to an extra two months worth of rainfall compared to 50 years ago.
Uist is no stranger to wind and winter storms, but how is that changing? Well, there was a big rise in the number of severe storms sweeping through the UK from around four per winter in the 1960s to around 14 in the 90s. But it was even stormier in the past – the 1920s for example, had 16 per winter. So it’s been up and down throughout the decades with no clear pattern of change.
And actually, if we look at Stornoway since the stormy period of the 90s, there’s been a very slight decline in the number of days with gales reported.
So it’s likely that changes in our storms are more likely to be driven by natural fluctuations in the Atlantic, with no real evidence to blame man-made factors.
The one main change we’ll see from storms is that coastal flooding could become more of an issue due to rising sea levels, with the fastest change seen over the last 30 years. This could create more issues for our causeways during stormy periods in the future.
So, whilst the climate changes around the world, we’re certainly not immune in the Western Isles. But what does seem evident, is that we’re protected from some of the biggest extremes, especially when it comes to temperature.
What does that mean for the future of our islands? Perhaps increased tourism due to our more comfortable summers, longer growing seasons for farmers and gardeners, an increase in wildfires, changes in wildlife behaviour, increased midge numbers due to warmer winters and increased rainfall, a higher risk of floods and perhaps an increase in causeway closures and damage.
As I always say with climate change, it’s a mixed future of increases and decreases and spikes in rainfall, temperatures, and snowfall. While we can plan and prepare for general trends, being equally prepared for the volatility is almost impossible.